THE STRATFOR WEEKLY
October 27, 2003

Summary

A coordinated bombing attack in Baghdad on the first day of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan will heighten fears in the West that the next 30 days could be a bloodbath of militant attacks around the globe.

Analysis

Suicide bombers attacked five targets, four successfully, in Baghdad on Oct. 27. The attacks -- against four police stations and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) -- came at the beginning of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.

The Coalition Provisional Authority and U.S. military in Iraq recently lifted a nighttime curfew in Baghdad to allow the city's inhabitants to celebrate the after-dark activities associated with Ramadan. During the month, Muslims fast from dawn to dusk, and then break the fast with evening Iftaar dinners. During Ramadan, Muslims socialize and gather after nightfall, meaning more people are out on the streets at all hours of the night, which potentially could create trouble for coalition forces.

The string of attacks in Iraq raises an alarming question for U.S. and other Western countries fighting al Qaeda: Were these attacks a symbolic trigger -- a message from al Qaeda to its allies around the globe -- to kickstart a campaign of attacks against Western allies, assets and infrastructure across the globe? Although the answer currently is unclear, the bombings will cause Western governments and businesses to respond as though Ramadan will be a month of bloodletting.

Muslims in various parts of the world mark the start of Ramadan differently, depending on their political orientation, geographic location and sometimes their sect. Traditionally, people look for the appearance of the new moon around dusk on 29th day of the Islamic month of Shaban. If a sighting is reported, Ramadan begins the next day. If no moon sighting is reported, then another day of Shaban is observed and the following day marks Ramadan's beginning. For instance, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Sudan and Yemen began Ramadan on Oct. 26, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Malaysia, Indonesia began Ramadan on Oct. 27. In Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Kashmir, Ramadan will begin Oct. 28.

The ability of militant Islamist organizations to act in concert on a global scale is a critical concern for the United States and its allies. Washington's war against al Qaeda is in part psychological, and both sides need to demonstrate that the other cannot operate globally without substantial risk. Al Qaeda hopes to raise the costs of U.S. involvement in the Gulf region high enough that Washington will pull out. The United States needs to break al Qaeda's global network so that it eventually can back the group's leadership into a geographic corner, lock it down and finally quash its operational capability.

Several questions remain about the Oct. 27 attacks in Baghdad. For example, there are various and conflicting reports about both the number of attacks and their locations. Ad Doura, Al Bayaa, Al Elam, Ash Shaab, Al Shawla, Al Khudra and Al Jadida have all been mentioned as locations where the police stations were hit. Other reports indicate, for instance, that there was no suicide attack at Ad Doura, but that Katyusha rockets were fired at the police station instead.

Moreover, there were reports before the Oct. 27 suicide bombings of unexplained explosions inside the Green Zone -- the converted presidential palace where the CPA is headquartered. These attacks followed the Oct. 26 rocket attack on the al-Rashid hotel in central Baghdad, where U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz was staying.

What is known, however, is that the attacks on the ICRC and the police stations were meant to undermine stability. The Red Cross has announced that it will withdraw its agents from the country, following in the footsteps of the United Nations, which also reduced its staff in Iraq after its headquarters in Baghdad were bombed in August.

The attacks on the police stations likely are meant to discourage Iraqis from working with the CPA, and to prevent citizens from working with the police. While they likely will succeed in scaring off foreign players, the attacks won't stop Iraqis from working with the police. Baghdadis, for instance, are concerned about everyday issues of law and order and are likely to feel less supportive of any resistance, guerrilla or militant group that threatens the stability of their daily existence.

Who carried out the attacks remains unclear, and the suspect list is long. The multiple attacks, coordinated within a 45-minute window and targeting sites in the central, north, south and western parts of the city, indicate that the group responsible is sophisticated, has a solid knowledge of the areas and experience in planning and logistics necessary for carrying out such operations.

Given the current political and military situation in Iraq, neither the modus operandi nor the target set points to any one group. The country's Sunni guerrillas, former Baathists and Hussein loyalists, foreign fighters from countries like Saudi Arabia and Syria -- as well as a local cell of al Qaeda -- are all potential suspects. It's possible that a collaboration of two or three different groups is working together. However, that does not give any insight into the more important question: Will this trigger attacks elsewhere on the globe?

For Western governments, who orchestrated and carried out the Ramadan attacks in Baghdad will be only half the mystery. Equally important will be the signal the attacks send around the world.

Decision-makers in Washington, London, Canberra, Madrid and elsewhere will be desperate to know the answers to these questions: Were these attacks dictated solely by local issues? Were they conducted by the Sunni guerrillas or foreign fighters? Are they tied only to the U.S. occupation in Iraq, or are they meant to signal to groups -- such as the Jemaah Islamiyah in Indonesia, the Taliban in Afghanistan, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in Algeria and the Aden-Abyan Army in Yemen or sleeper cells in the United States -- to launch their own attacks against Westerners and their allies?

Al Qaeda is a global network but also an operational unit formerly based in Afghanistan that might still be directing
attacks against the United States and its allies in the Gulf. Al Qaeda Prime, the senior leadership's operating unit based in Afghanistan -- which conducted the Sept. 11 attacks and other major operations -- has never used symbolic dates for operational activities.

However, other militant groups have launched or planned attacks around symbolic dates. For instance, Egypt's Gama'at Islamiyya bombed the World Trade Center in 1993 on the day after Ramadan began. The Bali bombing by Jemaah Islamiyah in 2002 was supposed to have occurred on the anniversary of Sept. 11, but preparations weren't ready on time. Both groups are now reportedly allied with al Qaeda.

More than two years after Sept. 11, al Qaeda has not carried out another major attack that would demonstrate its continued operational capability. A number of militant groups and radical organizations have coalesced around the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq.

Al Qaeda Prime still needs to show that it continues to survive if it hopes to take the war against the Americans beyond the Gulf. Using the start of Ramadan as an agreed launch date for a global terrorism campaign would resonate with radicals throughout the world.

There are some indications that Western governments are worried about Ramadan attacks. Australia, Britain and the United States all warned their citizens within the last few days of specific plots in Saudi Arabia. The warnings were not explicitly connected with the start of Ramadan, but they no doubt reflect a heightened concern by Western governments. The attacks in Iraq will aggravate those fears.

Policymakers, security officials and government advisers across the globe will be watching closely to see what happens in the coming days. A spate of bombings in Los Angeles, New Delhi, Rio de Janeiro, Madrid and Sydney would serve as a remarkable victory for al Qaeda and a mortal blow to the U.S. war against terrorism.