By Samanta Sen

LONDON - The developing world is running out of water at an alarming rate, a new study by the London-based agency "Tearfund" shows.

Two out of three people around the world will live with a drinking water shortage by the year 2025 unless drastic changes are made quickly, the report says. And these two in three will be living in developing countries.

Through the 1990s there were 143 droughts worldwide, affecting 185 million people, says the report "Running On Empty". "Population growth, poor water management, overuse of underground water supplies and global warming are combining to create the specter of millions of the world's poorest people remaining locked in poverty due to a lack of water," the report warns.

The crisis is upon us right now, the report says. Two thirds of China's cities are facing severe water shortages. In India, the capital New Delhi will run out of ground water by 2015 at present rates of loss.

Lake Chad in Africa has shrunk from 6,900 square miles to 1,500 square miles in the last 20 years. The number of people facing serious food shortages in eastern Africa has risen to nearly 20 million because of widespread drought.

"Global freshwater consumption rose six-fold between 1900 and 1995, at more than twice the rate of population growth," the report says. The world's population will increase by 3 billion in the next 50 years and a majority of these people will be born in countries already experiencing water shortages, the report says.

By 2025, 25 countries in Africa will be subject to water stress measured at an availability of 1,700 cubic meters per person per year. Kenya, Morocco, South Africa, India and Pakistan will have levels well below 1,000 cubic meters per person per year. These levels have been described by the United Nations as "catastrophic", the report points out.

The British government has recommended a target of reducing by half the proportion of people who are unable to reach, or to afford, safe drinking water by 2015. To reach that target investment in water will have to increase between US$300 billion to $600 billion, the Tearfund report warns. A drought running three years has parched Pakistan, Iran and India, the report says. It has hit Afghanistan hardest. The drought is causing people to move to camps in Pakistan, or to move around within Afghanistan, the report says. In Iran that drought has affected 37 million people - about half the population. Around 60 per cent of Iran's rural population might be forced to migrate to cities, the report warns.

In Eritrea, more than 1.5 million people have been displaced in the search for water and escaping from conflict, the report says. "In Ethiopia, large numbers of people now depend solely on food assistance for survival each year because they have lost their livestock and livelihoods due to drought," the report says.

China is facing "devastating water shortages which can no longer be blamed on unusual weather patterns". The Yellow River, one of the biggest northern rivers, now regularly runs dry; in 1997 it ran dry for 226 days of the year. "This is the result of the large number of unmanaged demands made on it by households, industry and agriculture," the report says. "The drought in the North has forced the government to take drastic action by diverting the Yangtze from the South, but this action could cause the river to run dry by 2020."

The crisis is hitting Chinese cities in unexpected ways. "Shanghai is sinking because of the amount of ground water being extracted from beneath it," the report says. "Altogether, two thirds of China's cities are facing severe water shortages."

Poor governance underlies many of the reasons for water shortage and drought, the report says. "It accounts for the failure to manage the different demands on water, to legislate and enforce water conservation methods and to find new investment."

Good management can overcome natural shortages greatly, the report says.

Israel and the southeast of England have low availability but "because of strong regulation leading to good management and high levels of investment, there is a good level of sustainable water supplies".

The dwindling supplies across the developing world will be made worse by rising population in these areas. In Europe, which largely has sufficient water, the population is projected to fall by 2025. With increased demand come lower supplies. Groundwater supplies about one third of the world's population with fresh water. Water tables are falling by as much as a meter a year in parts of Mexico, India, Yemen and China.

The heaviest human claim on water is agriculture. It uses 70 percent of fresh water across the world. In Asia and Africa the proportion rises to 90 percent, the report says. This raises difficult questions about the distribution of water.

Global warming is accelerating the problems, the report warns. The 1990s were the warmest decade since measurement began in the 1860s. Scientists believe that higher temperatures will lead to decreased water supplies as deserts expand and evaporation rates increase. Rivers will dry up as droughts intensify. The melting of the polar ice caps will increase the amount of water in oceans and lead to the intrusion of salt into freshwater bodies.

"In addition, coastal flooding will worsen, and islands in the Pacific could disappear altogether," the report warns. Shortages can lead to conflicts, the report says. "As the scarcity of water increases, countries will be prepared to go to war for such an important resource, especially as so many countries rely heavily on water from rivers which originate outside their borders."

Tearfund recommends that in order to tackle the crisis the issue of water should be placed high on the agenda at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in 2002. "Traditional methods of water

conservation, in addition to new technologies, should be re-discovered by the international community, with the participation and knowledge of local communities," the report says.

National governments should redouble their efforts to meet commitments made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5 per cent by 2012, and "investment in water supply, sanitation and water resources should be dramatically increased". The Tearfund report suggests that the "full value water should be recognized by making sure that water is paid for by industry, large-scale agriculture and the better off, but that targeted subsidies are given to those unable to afford to pay the full price".

The international development target that commits all countries to implementing National Strategies for Sustainable Development by 2005, should be monitored and enforced, the report says.