Financial Gazette (Harare)
December 14, 2000
Staff Reporter

Zimbabwe will lose a quarter of its workforce to the HIV/AIDS pandemic by 2020, according to an International Labour Organisation (ILO) study released this month.

The study entitled, HIV/AIDS in Africa: The Impact on the World of Work, was based on an analysis of United Nations population data. It concluded that the size of the labour force in some African countries, including Zimbabwe, could be up to 35 percent smaller by the year 2020 because of the AIDS virus.

The study was carried out in 29 African countries and it projected the decline in the workforce in these countries by between five and 35 percent by the year 2020. According to the study, projected losses in the workforce due to HIV/AIDS by the year 2020 will occur in Benin, whose labourforce will decline 4,8 percent, Botswana (-30,8 percent), Burkina Faso (-10,5 percent), Burundi (-10,5 percent), Cameroon (-12 percent), the Central African Republic (-14,4 percent), Chad (-6,1 percent), Congo (-9,5 percent), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (-7,1 percent) and Cote d'Ivoire (-12,8 percent). Eritrea will lose five percent of its workforce, Ethiopia 10,5 percent, Gabon 9,7 percent, Guinea-Bissau 10,2 percent, Kenya 20,2 percent, Lesotho
10,6 percent, Liberia 5,3 percent, Malawi 16 percent, Mozambique 24,9 percent, Namibia 35,1 percent, Nigeria 7,5 percent, Rwanda 9,6 percent, Sierra Leone 6,6 percent, South Africa 24,9 percent, Tanzania 14,6 percent, Togo 10,6 percent, Uganda 15, 8 percent, Zambia 2,3 percent and Zimbabwe 29,4 percent.

In Zimbabwe, it is estimated that one in five adults are infected with HIV and at least 1 000 people, most of them of working age, die from AIDS-related illnesses every week.

"The concern is not only with the size of the labour force, but also its quality," the ILO report said. "Many of those infected with HIV are experienced and skilled workers in both blue-collar and white-collar jobs. "The loss of these workers, together with the entry into the labour market of orphaned children who have to support themselves, is likely to lower both the average age of many workforces and their average level of skills and experience."

According to the report, workers at special risk include miners, transport workers, security personnel, teachers, health workers and seasonal or migrant workers in agriculture, construction and tourism. AIDS is already having an especially severe impact on agriculture in Africa, in particular on women who perform most principal tasks in farming and produce between 60 percent and 80 percent of the continent's food, the report said.

It added: "These figures do not take into account the reduced capacity of many of those still in the labour force but sick from AIDS- related illnesses. The age and sex composition of the workforce is also expected to change as more orphaned children and widows seek employment, another trend might be the retention of workers beyond retirement age in order to keep experienced staff."